NFL Week 9 Thursday night Bettors Guide: Texans at Jets

8:15 p.m., Texans by 1 ½, 42 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: It’s not a terrible idea to put the Jets in a fade pattern until they prove otherwise. They just aren’t to be trusted right now, even if this might smell like a trap game. Their only two wins have come against two of the worst teams in the league, the Patriots and Titans, while the Texans are nearly as good as anyone they’ve played, outside of the Vikings and perhaps the Packers. Neither the Jets offense nor defense impresses, and as far as special teams goes, they have an unreliable kicker in Greg Zuerlein. Clearly, the Robert Saleh firing has had an adverse effect on the defense, which is getting worn down trying to bail out the O every game. Now, it faces one of the NFL’s best playmakers in C.J. Stroud. Although Stroud will be missing his top two receivers, Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, against a strong secondary, he still has Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz as options. The offense also has been fine relying on Joe Mixon. Mixon has been a TD machine when he’s healthy and the Jets’ run stop unit ranks in the league’s bottom third.
Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers hasn’t looked like his old self except for the first Patriots game. Davante Adams hasn’t added any explosiveness to the downfield passing attack, and Rodgers doesn’t have the legs to make plays out of the pocket as he once did. That lack of mobility will be an issue against a very strong Houston pass rush. The Jets have averaged just 16.6 ppg during a five-game losing streak and, even with Houston banged up at the safety position, they don’t have any clear matchup advantages against a defense that ranks second in fewest yards allowed against per game (280.3) and third against the pass (164.3 ypg). The Texans are comfortable winning close games and are 8-1 in their last nine games in the favorite’s role. The Jets, as their fans well know, invent new ways to lose each week as into the darkness they go. Thursday night games trend toward the under. Given the Jets’ sputtering offense and the Texans’ expected focus on the running game, that’s also the play here.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Texans and the under.